** Bias shift to Neutral from Neutral / Bullish

WTI Crude Oil Futures (June Future)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 63.67, up +1.26 [+2.01%]   

WTI Crude Oil futures rallied yesterday after Scott Bessent’s positive comments regarding trade relations with China and President Trump’s more hawkish Iran comments.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was quoted as saying that China and the U.S. are looking to de-escalate trade tensions as the current tariff levels are “unsustainable”. Crude Oil and equity markets jumped on the news while the Dollar rallied in a risk-on trade. Tariff-related headlines continued throughout the day, driving market volatility. The headline also helped to drive Gold lower after making a sharply higher overnight high of 3,500.

President Trump stated that the U.S. and Israel are aligned on “every issue” after a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Markets took the comments as being hawkish on Iran and helped spark a rally in Crude oil. While negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program have seemed to be going better than expected, this news could signal otherwise.

Today, Crude Oil is down -0.58 [-0.91%] to 63.09 

This morning, Kazakhstan officials said they will prioritize national interests over OPEC. This is driving crude lower as a chunk of the compensation cuts will not be fully hit and the risks of Saudi retaliation now comes into play. 

If the Saudis were to overreact and increase production, the pricing risk is much lower. We have not heard a response from OPEC yet. Once we get an idea of how Saudi Arabia will react, we can recalibrate our trading bias.        

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude Oil futures traded into rare four-star resistance last night. Our target price on the opportunistic long was around 65, with 70 being the upside, which was hit last night. The Kazakhstan news shifts risk to the downside. 

Until we get news out of Saudi Arabia, we don’t know how they will react. Once we get some inkling of how the Saudis will react to the Kazakhstan news, we can recalibrate the bull thesis. For today, we hold a neutral stance.

For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance is set at…..

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